A model for forecasting real-world events

Example forecasts

These questions weren't seen during training.
Compare the model's probability of Yes with the final outcome.

1. 1

   Will the International Energy Agency announce an additional release of at least 100 million barrels from its strategic oil reserves on or before March 17, 2026, as confirmed by an official IEA statement or major news outlet?

   Show model prompt and response

   Probability of Yes

   99%Correct

   Outcome

   Yes

   Prompt

   
   You are an advanced AI system which has been finetuned to provide calibrated probabilistic
   forecasts under uncertainty, with your performance evaluated according to the Brier score. When
   forecasting, do not treat 0.5% (1:199 odds) and 5% (1:19) as similarly “small” probabilities,
   or 90% (9:1) and 99% (99:1) as similarly “high” probabilities. As the odds show, they are
   markedly different, so output your probabilities accordingly.
   
   Question:
   Will the International Energy Agency announce an additional release of at least 100 million barrels from its strategic oil reserves on or before March 17, 2026, as confirmed by an official IEA statement or major news outlet?
   
   Today's date: 13/03/2026
   Your pretraining knowledge cutoff: October 2023
   
   We have retrieved the following information for this question:
   <background>
           Organic Results:
           1. **Title:** IEA Member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid ...
               - **Link:** [https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict](https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict)
               - **Snippet:** IEA Member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid market disruptions from Middle East conflict. Press release 11 March 2026.
               2. **Title:** IEA announces record oil stockpile release over Iran war supply ...
               - **Link:** [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iea-proposes-largest-ever-oil-release-strategic-reserves-wsj-reports-2026-03-11/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iea-proposes-largest-ever-oil-release-strategic-reserves-wsj-reports-2026-03-11/)
               - **Snippet:** The International Energy Agency on Wednesday agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of ​oil from strategic stockpiles to combat a ...
               3. **Title:** United States to Release 172 Million Barrels of Oil From the ...
               - **Link:** [https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve](https://www.energy.gov/articles/united-states-release-172-million-barrels-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve)
               - **Snippet:** This will take approximately 120 days to deliver based on planned discharge rates.
               4. **Title:** Countries agree on historic release of crude reserves to lower oil ...
               - **Link:** [https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/11/business/oil-prices-rebound-iran-war-intl](https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/11/business/oil-prices-rebound-iran-war-intl)
               - **Snippet:** Member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed Wednesday to release 400 million barrels of oil into the global ...
               5. **Title:** Major, multi-country oil release deal fails to bring down prices
               - **Link:** [https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/iea-release-400-million-barrels-oil-iran-war-rcna262931](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/iea-release-400-million-barrels-oil-iran-war-rcna262931)
               - **Snippet:** The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that member countries had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their ...
               </background>
   
   Recall the question you are forecasting:
   Will the International Energy Agency announce an additional release of at least 100 million barrels from its strategic oil reserves on or before March 17, 2026, as confirmed by an official IEA statement or major news outlet?
   
   Instructions:
   1. Compress key factual information from the sources, as well as useful background information
   which may not be in the sources, into a list of core factual points to reference. Aim for
   information which is specific, relevant, and covers the core considerations you'll use to make
   your forecast. For this step, do not draw any conclusions about how a fact will influence your
   answer or forecast. Place this section of your response in <facts></facts> tags.
   
   2. Provide a few reasons why the answer might be no. Rate the strength of each reason on a
   scale of 1-10. Use <no></no> tags.
   
   3. Provide a few reasons why the answer might be yes. Rate the strength of each reason on a
   scale of 1-10. Use <yes></yes> tags.
   
   4. Aggregate your considerations. Do not summarize or repeat previous points; instead,
   investigate how the competing factors and mechanisms interact and weigh against each other.
   Factorize your thinking across (exhaustive, mutually exclusive) cases if and only if it would be
   beneficial to your reasoning. We have detected that you overestimate world conflict, drama,
   violence, and crises due to news' negativity bias, which doesn't necessarily represent overall
   trends or base rates. Similarly, we also have detected you overestimate dramatic, shocking,
   or emotionally charged news due to news' sensationalism bias. Therefore adjust for news'
   negativity bias and sensationalism bias by considering reasons to why your provided sources
   might be biased or exaggerated. Think like a superforecaster. Use <thinking></thinking> tags
   for this section of your response.
   
   5. Output an initial probability (prediction) as a single number between 0 and 1 given steps 1-4.
   Use <tentative></tentative> tags.
   
   6. Reflect on your answer, performing sanity checks and mentioning any additional knowledge
   or background information which may be relevant. Check for over/underconfidence, improper
   treatment of conjunctive or disjunctive conditions (only if applicable), and other forecasting
   biases when reviewing your reasoning. Consider priors/base rates, and the extent to which
   case-specific information justifies the deviation between your tentative forecast and the prior.
   Recall that your performance will be evaluated according to the Brier score. Be precise with tail
   probabilities. Leverage your intuitions, but never change your forecast for the sake of modesty
   or balance alone. Finally, aggregate all of your previous reasoning and highlight key factors
   that inform your final forecast. Use <thinking></thinking> tags for this portion of your response.
   
   7. Output your final prediction (a number between 0 and 1 with an asterisk at the beginning and
   end of the decimal) in <answer></answer> tags.
   
   
   OUTPUT_FORMAT
   * Your output response must be only a single JSON object to be parsed by Python's "json.loads()".
   * The JSON must contain four fields: "p_yes", "p_no", "confidence", and "info_utility".
   * Each item in the JSON must have a value between 0 and 1.
      - "p_yes": Estimated probability that the event in the "Question" occurs.
      - "p_no": Estimated probability that the event in the "Question" does not occur.
      - "confidence": A value between 0 and 1 indicating the confidence in the prediction. 0 indicates lowest
        confidence value; 1 maximum confidence value.
      - "info_utility": Utility of the information provided in "sources" to help you make the prediction.
        0 indicates lowest utility; 1 maximum utility.
   * The sum of "p_yes" and "p_no" must equal 1.
   * Output only the JSON object. Do not include any other contents in your response.
   * This is incorrect:"```json{
     "p_yes": 0.2,
     "p_no": 0.8,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }```"
   * This is incorrect:```json"{
     "p_yes": 0.2,
     "p_no": 0.8,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }"```
   * This is correct:"{
     "p_yes": 0.2,
     "p_no": 0.8,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }"
   

   Response

   <think>
   Alright, I need to figure out the probability that the IEA will announce an additional release of at least 100 million barrels from its strategic oil reserves by March 17, 2026. Let's break this down step by step.
   
   First, looking at the provided sources, there's a lot of information about the IEA and its member countries releasing oil. The key points are:
   
   1. The IEA has already announced a release of 400 million barrels, which is a record. This was confirmed by multiple sources, including Reuters, CNN, and the IEA's own press release on March 11, 2026.
   
   2. The release is in response to market disruptions from the Middle East conflict, which suggests that the IEA is taking significant action to stabilize oil prices.
   
   3. The United States is also involved, planning to release 172 million barrels, which is part of the larger 400 million barrels from the IEA's members.
   
   Given that the IEA has already announced a release of 400 million barrels, which is much larger than the 100 million barrels mentioned in the question, it seems highly likely that they have already done so. The question is whether they will announce an additional release on or before March 17, 2026. However, the sources indicate that the release was agreed upon on March 11, 2026, and the announcement was made then. Therefore, the event has already occurred as of March 13, 2026, which is the current date.
   
   Considering the information utility, the sources are quite relevant and provide clear evidence of the IEA's actions. The confidence in this prediction is high because the event has already happened, and the information is confirmed by multiple reliable sources.
   
   So, the probability that the IEA will announce the release is very high, almost certain. Therefore, p_yes is close to 1, and p_no is close to 0. The confidence is high, and the information utility is also high because the sources directly confirm the event.
   </think>
   
   ```json
   {
     "p_yes": 0.99,
     "p_no": 0.01,
     "confidence": 0.95,
     "info_utility": 0.9
   }
   ```

2. 2

   Will Qatar Energy publicly announce the partial or full resumption of liquefied natural gas production at the Ras Laffan terminal on or before March 25, 2026, as confirmed by an official company statement or major news outlet?

   Show model prompt and response

   Probability of Yes

   15%Correct

   Outcome

   No

   Prompt

   
   You are an advanced AI system which has been finetuned to provide calibrated probabilistic
   forecasts under uncertainty, with your performance evaluated according to the Brier score. When
   forecasting, do not treat 0.5% (1:199 odds) and 5% (1:19) as similarly “small” probabilities,
   or 90% (9:1) and 99% (99:1) as similarly “high” probabilities. As the odds show, they are
   markedly different, so output your probabilities accordingly.
   
   Question:
   Will Qatar Energy publicly announce the partial or full resumption of liquefied natural gas production at the Ras Laffan terminal on or before March 25, 2026, as confirmed by an official company statement or major news outlet?
   
   Today's date: 21/03/2026
   Your pretraining knowledge cutoff: October 2023
   
   We have retrieved the following information for this question:
   <background>
           Organic Results:
           1. **Title:** QatarEnergy Says Damage at LNG Facilities Could Take Years to ...
               - **Link:** [https://naturalgasintel.com/news/qatarenergy-says-damage-at-lng-facilities-could-take-years-to-repair-upending-supply-outlook/](https://naturalgasintel.com/news/qatarenergy-says-damage-at-lng-facilities-could-take-years-to-repair-upending-supply-outlook/)
               - **Snippet:** QatarEnergy warned Thursday it would take up to five years to repair damage to its LNG facilities after two separate missile attacks by Iran hit ...
               2. **Title:** Qatar shuts gas liquefaction, will take weeks to restart, sources say
               - **Link:** [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/qatarenergy-declares-force-majeure-lng-shipments-2026-03-04/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/qatarenergy-declares-force-majeure-lng-shipments-2026-03-04/)
               - **Snippet:** QE won't restart the facility for at least two weeks, according to initial ​estimates of the situation in the region, the sources said. Once the ...
               3. **Title:** News Details - Qatar Energy
               - **Link:** [https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/MediaCenter/Pages/newsdetails.aspx?ItemId=3892](https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/MediaCenter/Pages/newsdetails.aspx?ItemId=3892)
               - **Snippet:** DOHA, Qatar • 02 March 2026 – Due to military attacks on QatarEnergy's operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City in ...
               4. **Title:** Qatar Said to Push LNG Expansion to 2027 After Iran Drone Attack
               - **Link:** [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/qatar-said-to-push-lng-expansion-to-2027-after-iran-drone-attack](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/qatar-said-to-push-lng-expansion-to-2027-after-iran-drone-attack)
               - **Snippet:** QatarEnergy is pushing back the start of a major liquefied natural gas expansion project to at least 2027 after a drone attack last week ...
               5. **Title:** Qatar Halts Gas Production; Full Restart Weeks Away - TrustFinance
               - **Link:** [https://www.trustfinance.com/en-US/blog/qatar-halts-gas-production-full-restart-weeks-away](https://www.trustfinance.com/en-US/blog/qatar-halts-gas-production-full-restart-weeks-away)
               - **Snippet:** Qatar Energy halts gas liquefaction, declaring force majeure. Sources indicate a full production restart could take at least a month.
               </background>
   
   Recall the question you are forecasting:
   Will Qatar Energy publicly announce the partial or full resumption of liquefied natural gas production at the Ras Laffan terminal on or before March 25, 2026, as confirmed by an official company statement or major news outlet?
   
   Instructions:
   1. Compress key factual information from the sources, as well as useful background information
   which may not be in the sources, into a list of core factual points to reference. Aim for
   information which is specific, relevant, and covers the core considerations you'll use to make
   your forecast. For this step, do not draw any conclusions about how a fact will influence your
   answer or forecast. Place this section of your response in <facts></facts> tags.
   
   2. Provide a few reasons why the answer might be no. Rate the strength of each reason on a
   scale of 1-10. Use <no></no> tags.
   
   3. Provide a few reasons why the answer might be yes. Rate the strength of each reason on a
   scale of 1-10. Use <yes></yes> tags.
   
   4. Aggregate your considerations. Do not summarize or repeat previous points; instead,
   investigate how the competing factors and mechanisms interact and weigh against each other.
   Factorize your thinking across (exhaustive, mutually exclusive) cases if and only if it would be
   beneficial to your reasoning. We have detected that you overestimate world conflict, drama,
   violence, and crises due to news' negativity bias, which doesn't necessarily represent overall
   trends or base rates. Similarly, we also have detected you overestimate dramatic, shocking,
   or emotionally charged news due to news' sensationalism bias. Therefore adjust for news'
   negativity bias and sensationalism bias by considering reasons to why your provided sources
   might be biased or exaggerated. Think like a superforecaster. Use <thinking></thinking> tags
   for this section of your response.
   
   5. Output an initial probability (prediction) as a single number between 0 and 1 given steps 1-4.
   Use <tentative></tentative> tags.
   
   6. Reflect on your answer, performing sanity checks and mentioning any additional knowledge
   or background information which may be relevant. Check for over/underconfidence, improper
   treatment of conjunctive or disjunctive conditions (only if applicable), and other forecasting
   biases when reviewing your reasoning. Consider priors/base rates, and the extent to which
   case-specific information justifies the deviation between your tentative forecast and the prior.
   Recall that your performance will be evaluated according to the Brier score. Be precise with tail
   probabilities. Leverage your intuitions, but never change your forecast for the sake of modesty
   or balance alone. Finally, aggregate all of your previous reasoning and highlight key factors
   that inform your final forecast. Use <thinking></thinking> tags for this portion of your response.
   
   7. Output your final prediction (a number between 0 and 1 with an asterisk at the beginning and
   end of the decimal) in <answer></answer> tags.
   
   
   OUTPUT_FORMAT
   * Your output response must be only a single JSON object to be parsed by Python's "json.loads()".
   * The JSON must contain four fields: "p_yes", "p_no", "confidence", and "info_utility".
   * Each item in the JSON must have a value between 0 and 1.
      - "p_yes": Estimated probability that the event in the "Question" occurs.
      - "p_no": Estimated probability that the event in the "Question" does not occur.
      - "confidence": A value between 0 and 1 indicating the confidence in the prediction. 0 indicates lowest
        confidence value; 1 maximum confidence value.
      - "info_utility": Utility of the information provided in "sources" to help you make the prediction.
        0 indicates lowest utility; 1 maximum utility.
   * The sum of "p_yes" and "p_no" must equal 1.
   * Output only the JSON object. Do not include any other contents in your response.
   * This is incorrect:"```json{
     "p_yes": 0.2,
     "p_no": 0.8,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }```"
   * This is incorrect:```json"{
     "p_yes": 0.2,
     "p_no": 0.8,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }"```
   * This is correct:"{
     "p_yes": 0.2,
     "p_no": 0.8,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }"
   

   Response

   <think>
   Alright, I need to figure out the probability that Qatar Energy will announce the resumption of LNG production at Ras Laffan by March 25, 2026. Let's break down the information.
   
   First, the background shows that QatarEnergy has faced multiple attacks, including missile and drone strikes, which have caused significant damage. They've declared force majeure and estimates suggest repairs could take up to five years. The sources indicate that the LNG facilities are still damaged, and production is halted. Some reports even mention pushing expansions to 2027, which is beyond the target date of March 25, 2026.
   
   On the other hand, there's a chance that partial resumption could happen before the deadline, but the sources don't provide a clear indication of that. The information is quite negative, suggesting that the facilities are still under repair and not operational.
   
   Considering the negativity bias in news, I should adjust my assessment. However, the consistent reports of extended repair times and delays make it more likely that the resumption won't happen by March 25. Therefore, the probability of them announcing resumption is low, around 0.15. The confidence is moderate because while the information is clear, there's some uncertainty in exact timelines. The info utility is high as the sources provide relevant details.
   </think>
   
   ```json
   {
     "p_yes": 0.15,
     "p_no": 0.85,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.8
   }
   ```

3. 3

   Will the price of Brent crude oil reach or exceed $130 per barrel on or before April 4, 2026, as reported by a major financial news outlet or official commodity exchange?

   Show model prompt and response

   Probability of Yes

   15%Wrong

   Outcome

   Yes

   Prompt

   
   You are an advanced AI system which has been finetuned to provide calibrated probabilistic
   forecasts under uncertainty, with your performance evaluated according to the Brier score. When
   forecasting, do not treat 0.5% (1:199 odds) and 5% (1:19) as similarly “small” probabilities,
   or 90% (9:1) and 99% (99:1) as similarly “high” probabilities. As the odds show, they are
   markedly different, so output your probabilities accordingly.
   
   Question:
   Will the price of Brent crude oil reach or exceed $130 per barrel on or before April 4, 2026, as reported by a major financial news outlet or official commodity exchange?
   
   Today's date: 31/03/2026
   Your pretraining knowledge cutoff: October 2023
   
   We have retrieved the following information for this question:
   <background>
           Organic Results:
           1. **Title:** Oil Can Hit $91 a Barrel in Late 2026 on Iran Disruption
               - **Link:** [https://about.bnef.com/insights/commodities/oil-can-hit-91-a-barrel-in-late-2026-on-iran-disruption/](https://about.bnef.com/insights/commodities/oil-can-hit-91-a-barrel-in-late-2026-on-iran-disruption/)
               - **Snippet:** BloombergNEF estimates Brent crude to average $55 per barrel in 2026, assuming the situation in Iran does not disturb global oil markets.
               2. **Title:** Bank of America Raises Brent Oil Price Forecast for 2026 on Strait of ...
               - **Link:** [https://www.mexc.com/news/939465](https://www.mexc.com/news/939465)
               - **Snippet:** TLDR. BofA raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $77.50/barrel, up from $61; Brent was trading at $103 at the time of writing ...
               3. **Title:** Goldman Sachs raises 2026 Brent crude average price forecast by ...
               - **Link:** [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/goldman-sachs-raises-2026-brent-crude-average-price-forecast-by-8-85-barrel-2026-03-23/](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/goldman-sachs-raises-2026-brent-crude-average-price-forecast-by-8-85-barrel-2026-03-23/)
               - **Snippet:** Goldman Sachs late on Sunday raised its 2026 average price forecast for Brent crude oil to $85 per barrel (bbl) from $77, while ​raising its ...
               4. **Title:** Oil Price Forecast for 2026 | J.P. Morgan Global Research
               - **Link:** [https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-prices](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/oil-prices)
               - **Snippet:** Despite a recent spike in oil prices, J.P. Morgan Global Research expects to see Brent crude averaging around $60/bbl in 2026. This bearish ...
               5. **Title:** The fallout from oil's surge is spreading as forecasts for crude keep ...
               - **Link:** [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fallout-from-oils-surge-is-spreading-as-forecasts-for-crude-keep-rising-150447796.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fallout-from-oils-surge-is-spreading-as-forecasts-for-crude-keep-rising-150447796.html)
               - **Snippet:** As crude prices have surged, costs for refined products like diesel and jet fuel have flown even higher, putting pressure on myriad market ...
               </background>
   
   Recall the question you are forecasting:
   Will the price of Brent crude oil reach or exceed $130 per barrel on or before April 4, 2026, as reported by a major financial news outlet or official commodity exchange?
   
   Instructions:
   1. Compress key factual information from the sources, as well as useful background information
   which may not be in the sources, into a list of core factual points to reference. Aim for
   information which is specific, relevant, and covers the core considerations you'll use to make
   your forecast. For this step, do not draw any conclusions about how a fact will influence your
   answer or forecast. Place this section of your response in <facts></facts> tags.
   
   2. Provide a few reasons why the answer might be no. Rate the strength of each reason on a
   scale of 1-10. Use <no></no> tags.
   
   3. Provide a few reasons why the answer might be yes. Rate the strength of each reason on a
   scale of 1-10. Use <yes></yes> tags.
   
   4. Aggregate your considerations. Do not summarize or repeat previous points; instead,
   investigate how the competing factors and mechanisms interact and weigh against each other.
   Factorize your thinking across (exhaustive, mutually exclusive) cases if and only if it would be
   beneficial to your reasoning. We have detected that you overestimate world conflict, drama,
   violence, and crises due to news' negativity bias, which doesn't necessarily represent overall
   trends or base rates. Similarly, we also have detected you overestimate dramatic, shocking,
   or emotionally charged news due to news' sensationalism bias. Therefore adjust for news'
   negativity bias and sensationalism bias by considering reasons to why your provided sources
   might be biased or exaggerated. Think like a superforecaster. Use <thinking></thinking> tags
   for this section of your response.
   
   5. Output an initial probability (prediction) as a single number between 0 and 1 given steps 1-4.
   Use <tentative></tentative> tags.
   
   6. Reflect on your answer, performing sanity checks and mentioning any additional knowledge
   or background information which may be relevant. Check for over/underconfidence, improper
   treatment of conjunctive or disjunctive conditions (only if applicable), and other forecasting
   biases when reviewing your reasoning. Consider priors/base rates, and the extent to which
   case-specific information justifies the deviation between your tentative forecast and the prior.
   Recall that your performance will be evaluated according to the Brier score. Be precise with tail
   probabilities. Leverage your intuitions, but never change your forecast for the sake of modesty
   or balance alone. Finally, aggregate all of your previous reasoning and highlight key factors
   that inform your final forecast. Use <thinking></thinking> tags for this portion of your response.
   
   7. Output your final prediction (a number between 0 and 1 with an asterisk at the beginning and
   end of the decimal) in <answer></answer> tags.
   
   
   OUTPUT_FORMAT
   * Your output response must be only a single JSON object to be parsed by Python's "json.loads()".
   * The JSON must contain four fields: "p_yes", "p_no", "confidence", and "info_utility".
   * Each item in the JSON must have a value between 0 and 1.
      - "p_yes": Estimated probability that the event in the "Question" occurs.
      - "p_no": Estimated probability that the event in the "Question" does not occur.
      - "confidence": A value between 0 and 1 indicating the confidence in the prediction. 0 indicates lowest
        confidence value; 1 maximum confidence value.
      - "info_utility": Utility of the information provided in "sources" to help you make the prediction.
        0 indicates lowest utility; 1 maximum utility.
   * The sum of "p_yes" and "p_no" must equal 1.
   * Output only the JSON object. Do not include any other contents in your response.
   * This is incorrect:"```json{
     "p_yes": 0.2,
     "p_no": 0.8,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }```"
   * This is incorrect:```json"{
     "p_yes": 0.2,
     "p_no": 0.8,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }"```
   * This is correct:"{
     "p_yes": 0.2,
     "p_no": 0.8,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }"
   

   Response

   <think>
   Alright, I need to figure out the probability that Brent crude oil will reach or exceed $130 per barrel by April 4, 2026. Let's start by looking at the information provided.
   
   The sources mention various forecasts. BloombergNEF estimates an average of $55 per barrel, assuming no major disruptions. Bank of America raised their forecast to $77.50, while Goldman Sachs increased theirs to $85. J.P. Morgan expects around $60, and another source notes that despite a spike, they're bearish on $60 average.
   
   These forecasts suggest that the average price is expected to be between $55 and $85. To reach $130, there would need to be significant geopolitical events or supply disruptions. However, the sources don't indicate such disruptions, except for a mention of Iran possibly causing issues, but even that only pushed the estimate to $91.
   
   Considering the current forecasts and the lack of indicators for extreme price hikes, it's unlikely that Brent crude will hit $130. The information provided is somewhat useful but doesn't strongly support the event happening. My confidence in this prediction is moderate, and the utility of the information is also moderate.
   </think>
   
   ```json
   {
     "p_yes": 0.15,
     "p_no": 0.85,
     "confidence": 0.6,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }
   ```

4. 4

   Will Emirates publicly announce, on or before March 31, 2026, the restoration of its full pre-conflict flight schedule at Dubai International Airport, as confirmed by an official company statement or major news outlet?

   Show model prompt and response

   Probability of Yes

   60%Correct

   Outcome

   Yes

   Prompt

   
   You are an advanced AI system which has been finetuned to provide calibrated probabilistic
   forecasts under uncertainty, with your performance evaluated according to the Brier score. When
   forecasting, do not treat 0.5% (1:199 odds) and 5% (1:19) as similarly “small” probabilities,
   or 90% (9:1) and 99% (99:1) as similarly “high” probabilities. As the odds show, they are
   markedly different, so output your probabilities accordingly.
   
   Question:
   Will Emirates publicly announce, on or before March 31, 2026, the restoration of its full pre-conflict flight schedule at Dubai International Airport, as confirmed by an official company statement or major news outlet?
   
   Today's date: 30/03/2026
   Your pretraining knowledge cutoff: October 2023
   
   We have retrieved the following information for this question:
   <background>
           Organic Results:
           1. **Title:** Emirates issues war-zone waiver and resumes limited ...
               - **Link:** [https://www.visahq.com/news/2026-03-16/ae/emirates-issues-war-zone-waiver-and-resumes-limited-schedule-after-airspace-closure/](https://www.visahq.com/news/2026-03-16/ae/emirates-issues-war-zone-waiver-and-resumes-limited-schedule-after-airspace-closure/)
               - **Snippet:** Emirates has restarted a limited flight schedule and introduced a no-fee change/refund waiver for tickets dated 28 February–31 March 2026.
               2. **Title:** Just in, Emirates has announced its plan to restore its full ...
               - **Link:** [https://www.facebook.com/groups/1222151839320582/posts/1450120509857046/](https://www.facebook.com/groups/1222151839320582/posts/1450120509857046/)
               - **Snippet:** Just in, Emirates has announced its plan to restore its full global flight network within the coming days following a period of significant ...
               3. **Title:** Emirates airline to run limited Dubai flights
               - **Link:** [https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/emirates-airline-run-limited-dubai-flights-2026-03-16/](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/emirates-airline-run-limited-dubai-flights-2026-03-16/)
               - **Snippet:** Emirates airline said ​on Monday ‌that it expects to operate ​a ​limited Dubai flight ⁠schedule after ​10 am ​local time.
               4. **Title:** Emirates Sees Return to Full Network Flights in Coming Days
               - **Link:** [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/emirates-sees-return-to-full-network-operations-in-coming-days](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/emirates-sees-return-to-full-network-operations-in-coming-days)
               - **Snippet:** Emirates announced a return to full network operations in coming days, subject to airspace availability and operational requirements. The ...
               5. **Title:** Emirates continues limited flight schedule from DXB
               - **Link:** [https://www.timeoutdubai.com/news/emirates-limited-dubai-flights-march-2026](https://www.timeoutdubai.com/news/emirates-limited-dubai-flights-march-2026)
               - **Snippet:** Emirates' latest travel update was issued on Wednesday March 18, and confirmed that the airline is operating a reduced flight schedule. The ...
               </background>
   
   Recall the question you are forecasting:
   Will Emirates publicly announce, on or before March 31, 2026, the restoration of its full pre-conflict flight schedule at Dubai International Airport, as confirmed by an official company statement or major news outlet?
   
   Instructions:
   1. Compress key factual information from the sources, as well as useful background information
   which may not be in the sources, into a list of core factual points to reference. Aim for
   information which is specific, relevant, and covers the core considerations you'll use to make
   your forecast. For this step, do not draw any conclusions about how a fact will influence your
   answer or forecast. Place this section of your response in <facts></facts> tags.
   
   2. Provide a few reasons why the answer might be no. Rate the strength of each reason on a
   scale of 1-10. Use <no></no> tags.
   
   3. Provide a few reasons why the answer might be yes. Rate the strength of each reason on a
   scale of 1-10. Use <yes></yes> tags.
   
   4. Aggregate your considerations. Do not summarize or repeat previous points; instead,
   investigate how the competing factors and mechanisms interact and weigh against each other.
   Factorize your thinking across (exhaustive, mutually exclusive) cases if and only if it would be
   beneficial to your reasoning. We have detected that you overestimate world conflict, drama,
   violence, and crises due to news' negativity bias, which doesn't necessarily represent overall
   trends or base rates. Similarly, we also have detected you overestimate dramatic, shocking,
   or emotionally charged news due to news' sensationalism bias. Therefore adjust for news'
   negativity bias and sensationalism bias by considering reasons to why your provided sources
   might be biased or exaggerated. Think like a superforecaster. Use <thinking></thinking> tags
   for this section of your response.
   
   5. Output an initial probability (prediction) as a single number between 0 and 1 given steps 1-4.
   Use <tentative></tentative> tags.
   
   6. Reflect on your answer, performing sanity checks and mentioning any additional knowledge
   or background information which may be relevant. Check for over/underconfidence, improper
   treatment of conjunctive or disjunctive conditions (only if applicable), and other forecasting
   biases when reviewing your reasoning. Consider priors/base rates, and the extent to which
   case-specific information justifies the deviation between your tentative forecast and the prior.
   Recall that your performance will be evaluated according to the Brier score. Be precise with tail
   probabilities. Leverage your intuitions, but never change your forecast for the sake of modesty
   or balance alone. Finally, aggregate all of your previous reasoning and highlight key factors
   that inform your final forecast. Use <thinking></thinking> tags for this portion of your response.
   
   7. Output your final prediction (a number between 0 and 1 with an asterisk at the beginning and
   end of the decimal) in <answer></answer> tags.
   
   
   OUTPUT_FORMAT
   * Your output response must be only a single JSON object to be parsed by Python's "json.loads()".
   * The JSON must contain four fields: "p_yes", "p_no", "confidence", and "info_utility".
   * Each item in the JSON must have a value between 0 and 1.
      - "p_yes": Estimated probability that the event in the "Question" occurs.
      - "p_no": Estimated probability that the event in the "Question" does not occur.
      - "confidence": A value between 0 and 1 indicating the confidence in the prediction. 0 indicates lowest
        confidence value; 1 maximum confidence value.
      - "info_utility": Utility of the information provided in "sources" to help you make the prediction.
        0 indicates lowest utility; 1 maximum utility.
   * The sum of "p_yes" and "p_no" must equal 1.
   * Output only the JSON object. Do not include any other contents in your response.
   * This is incorrect:"```json{
     "p_yes": 0.2,
     "p_no": 0.8,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }```"
   * This is incorrect:```json"{
     "p_yes": 0.2,
     "p_no": 0.8,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }"```
   * This is correct:"{
     "p_yes": 0.2,
     "p_no": 0.8,
     "confidence": 0.7,
     "info_utility": 0.5
   }"
   

   Response

   <think>
   Alright, I need to figure out the probability that Emirates will announce the restoration of its full pre-conflict flight schedule at Dubai International Airport by March 31, 2026. Let's break this down step by step.
   
   First, looking at the provided sources, there are several mentions of Emirates resuming flights but not all of them indicate a full restoration. For example, some articles talk about a limited flight schedule, while others suggest plans to restore the full network. However, none of the sources explicitly state that the full pre-conflict schedule has been confirmed as restored by March 31, 2026.
   
   On one hand, the fact that Emirates has started resuming flights, even if limited, suggests that they are moving towards restoring their operations. Bloomberg's article mentions that they plan to return to full network operations in the coming days, which is a positive sign. Additionally, the Facebook post indicates that Emirates has announced a plan to restore their full network, which could mean they might make a public announcement soon.
   
   On the other hand, the Reuters and VisaHQ articles mention a limited schedule, which implies that the full restoration hasn't happened yet. The Timeout Dubai article also states that Emirates is operating a reduced schedule, which could mean they're not ready to announce the full restoration just yet. There's also the possibility of external factors like airspace availability and operational requirements, as mentioned in the Bloomberg article, which might delay the full restoration.
   
   Considering the sources, the information is somewhat mixed. While there are signs of progress towards full restoration, there's no concrete confirmation yet. The utility of the information is moderate because the sources provide relevant context but don't directly answer the question. Therefore, the confidence in the prediction is somewhat low, as the outcome isn't certain.
   
   After weighing these factors, I think the probability of Emirates making the announcement is around 60%. The information utility is about 0.6 because the sources are somewhat helpful but not definitive. The confidence is 0.6 because while there are positive signs, there are still uncertainties that could affect the outcome.
   </think>
   
   ```json
   {
     "p_yes": 0.6,
     "p_no": 0.4,
     "confidence": 0.6,
     "info_utility": 0.6
   }
   ```